Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krylya Sovetov vs Irtysh Omsk — First League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
3/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Krylya Sovetov73%
×Draw17%
Irtysh Omsk9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
2.21
Irtysh Omsk
0.64

Krylya Sovetov creates 245% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
3.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.86

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
0.41
Irtysh Omsk
1.43

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
91%
Krylya Sovetov or Irtysh Omsk
83%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
27%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
49%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
89%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
65%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
38%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
47%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
14%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
89%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 3.00 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.21

Irtysh Omsk attack 0.86 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
73%
level
17%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
9%

Krylya Sovetov at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov vs Irtysh Omsk

Krylya Sovetov beat Irtysh Omsk 3-1 in First League on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.