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Krylya Sovetov vs Akhmat Grozny — Premier League 2018

Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
11/10/2018Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylya Sovetov44%
×Draw27%
Akhmat Grozny29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov
1.39
Akhmat Grozny
1.09

Krylya Sovetov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 121 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.31
Akhmat Grozny
1.01

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov
1.17
Akhmat Grozny
1.47

finishing

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov or draw
71%
Krylya Sovetov or Akhmat Grozny
73%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
56%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
21%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
75%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
40%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
16%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
66%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
30%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
60%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.31 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krylya Sovetov scores more
44%
level
27%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
29%

Krylya Sovetov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Krylya Sovetov 1–2 Akhmat Grozny

Akhmat Grozny beat Krylya Sovetov 2-1 in Premier League on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.