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Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat — Premier League 2018

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Akhmat
Akhmat
N. Chernov 70'
A. Rahmanovic 4'
E. Cacintura 40' (pen)
G. Melkadze 10'
4/11/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Samara Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov44%
×Draw27%
Akhmat29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.39
Akhmat
1.09

Krylia Sovetov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 121 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.31
Akhmat
1.01

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.17
Akhmat
1.47

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
71%
Krylia Sovetov or Akhmat
73%
Draw or Akhmat
56%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
21%
Akhmat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
75%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
40%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
16%
Akhmat 1+ goals
66%
Akhmat 2+ goals
30%
Akhmat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
60%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Akhmat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Akhmat attack 1.01 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
44%
level
27%
Akhmat scores more
29%

Krylia Sovetov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
A. RahmanovicKrylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov · F
7.9

Match Events

4'
A. Rahmanovic↳ M. Vityugov
10'
G. Melkadze↳ M. Samorodov
33'
Sergey Babkin
39'
Georgi MelkadzePenalty confirmed
40'
E. CacinturaPenalty
45+3'
Kirill Pechenin
45+3'
Maksim Samorodov
46'
M. Banjac← S. Babkin
62'
B. Mansilla← M. Samorodov
65'
I. Akhmetov← J. Marin
67'
Ivan Oleynikov
70'
N. Chernov↳ M. Banjac
71'
Lechi Sadulaev
75'
G. Kenzhebek← P. Gadio
80'
V. Ignatenko← A. Rahmanovic
80'
A. Shumansky← M. Vityugov
82'
M. Konate← G. Melkadze
82'
T. Ibishev← L. Sadulaev
87'
V. Khubulov← I. Oleynikov
90+3'
Galymzhan Kenzhebek

Possession

61%Krylia

Shots

9Krylia

Pass accuracy

52%Krylia

Statistics

KryliaAkhmat
Overview
61%Possession39%
9Total Shots11
11Corners4
12Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots11
6On Target3
2Off Target6
1Blocked2
7Inside Box7
2Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
482Total Passes311
404Accurate Passes240
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls18
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Premier League: Krylia Sovetov 2–2 Akhmat

Krylia Sovetov and Akhmat drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 11, 2026.

Goals: A. Rahmanovic (4'), G. Melkadze (10'), E. Cacintura (40' pen), N. Chernov (70').

Krylia Sovetov controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Samara Arena in Samara.