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Krylya Sovetov U20 vs Ufa U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krylya Sovetov U20
Krylya Sovetov U20
FT
0 – 2
Ufa U20
Ufa U20
A. Egorov 72'
A. Konovalov 67'
11/29/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Krylya Sovetov U2061%
×Draw20%
Ufa U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov U20
2.26
Ufa U20
1.21

Krylya Sovetov U20 creates 87% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov U20
2.27
Ufa U20
0.97

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov U20
1.45
Ufa U20
2.25

finishing

Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par
Ufa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov U20 ↓

Ufa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov U20 or draw
80%
Krylya Sovetov U20 or Ufa U20
80%
Draw or Ufa U20
39%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+
38%
Ufa U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals
89%
Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals
66%
Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals
39%
Ufa U20 1+ goals
70%
Ufa U20 2+ goals
34%
Ufa U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)
76%
Ufa U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov U20 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Ufa U20 away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + Ufa U20 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.26

Ufa U20 attack 0.97 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more
61%
level
20%
Ufa U20 scores more
20%

Krylya Sovetov U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
A. Konovalov
72'
A. Egorov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Krylya Sovetov U20 0–2 Ufa U20

Ufa U20 beat Krylya Sovetov U20 2-0 in Youth Championship on November 29, 2019.

Goals: A. Konovalov (67'), A. Egorov (72').

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Samara.