Krylya Sovetov U20 0–3 Dinamo Moskva U20

Krylya Sovetov U20

FT

0 – 3

Dinamo Moskva U20

8/29/2019

Youth Championship · Round 8Stadion Metallurg zapasnoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Krylya Sovetov U2044%

×Draw23%

Dinamo Moskva U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya Sovetov U20Expected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

Krylya Sovetov U20

1.79

Dinamo Moskva U20

1.52

Krylya Sovetov U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 20 away

2.27

creates per match

1.60

1.45

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov U20

2.27

Dinamo Moskva U20

1.60

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov U20

1.45

Dinamo Moskva U20

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov U20+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov U20 ↓

Dinamo Moskva U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov U20 or draw

67%

Krylya Sovetov U20 or Dinamo Moskva U20

77%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva U20

56%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov U20 wins by 2+

24%

Dinamo Moskva U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov U20 1+ goals

83%

Krylya Sovetov U20 2+ goals

53%

Krylya Sovetov U20 3+ goals

26%

Dinamo Moskva U20 1+ goals

78%

Dinamo Moskva U20 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo Moskva U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov U20 (draw refunded)

57%

Dinamo Moskva U20 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov U20 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Dinamo Moskva U20 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov U20 attack 2.27 + Dinamo Moskva U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dinamo Moskva U20 attack 1.60 + Krylya Sovetov U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krylya Sovetov U20 scores more

44%

level

23%

Dinamo Moskva U20 scores more

33%

Krylya Sovetov U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff