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Krylya Sovetov U19 vs Strogino U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krylya Sovetov U19
Krylya Sovetov U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Strogino U20
Strogino U20
5/3/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 8Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Krylya Sovetov U1940%
×Draw22%
Strogino U2038%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov U19
1.81
Strogino U20
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 56 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov U19
1.72
Strogino U20
1.45

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov U19
2.04
Strogino U20
1.91

finishing

Krylya Sovetov U19+0.00on par
Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov U19 ↓

Strogino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov U19 or draw
62%
Krylya Sovetov U19 or Strogino U20
78%
Draw or Strogino U20
60%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov U19 wins by 2+
21%
Strogino U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov U19 1+ goals
84%
Krylya Sovetov U19 2+ goals
54%
Krylya Sovetov U19 3+ goals
27%
Strogino U20 1+ goals
83%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
52%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov U19 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.04 · 67 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov U19 attack 1.72 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.81

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + Krylya Sovetov U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krylya Sovetov U19 scores more
40%
level
22%
Strogino U20 scores more
38%

Krylya Sovetov U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Krylya Sovetov U19 5–0 Strogino U20

Krylya Sovetov U19 beat Strogino U20 5-0 in Youth Championship on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Samara.