Krylya Sovetov U19 2–2 Kuban U19: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Kuban U19

K. Popov 59'

S. Makarov 39'

A. Mkrtychyan 34' (pen)

S. Bagiev 15'

4/7/2023

Youth Championship · Lower Table Round - 4Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Krylya Sovetov U1932%

×Draw25%

Kuban U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya Sovetov U19Expected goals in this matchKuban U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.52

Krylya Sovetov U19

1.29

Kuban U19

1.52

Kuban U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

1.72

creates per match

1.00

2.04

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov U19

1.72

Kuban U19

1.00

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov U19

2.04

Kuban U19

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov U19+0.00on par

Kuban U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov U19 ↓

Kuban U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov U19 or draw

57%

Krylya Sovetov U19 or Kuban U19

75%

Draw or Kuban U19

68%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov U19 wins by 2+

14%

Kuban U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov U19 1+ goals

72%

Krylya Sovetov U19 2+ goals

37%

Krylya Sovetov U19 3+ goals

14%

Kuban U19 1+ goals

78%

Kuban U19 2+ goals

45%

Kuban U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Kuban U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov U19 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.04 · 67 matches

Kuban U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov U19 attack 1.72 + Kuban U19 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kuban U19 attack 1.00 + Krylya Sovetov U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krylya Sovetov U19 scores more

32%

level

25%

Kuban U19 scores more

43%

Kuban U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kuban U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

S. Bagiev

34'

A. MkrtychyanPenalty

39'

S. Makarov

49'

S. Politov

49'

S. Politov

59'

K. Popov

90'

V. Teplyakov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff