Krylya Sovetov U19 3–3 Baltika U19: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov U19

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Baltika U19

5/17/2024

Youth Championship · Round 10Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krylya Sovetov U1950%

×Draw22%

Baltika U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya Sovetov U19Expected goals in this matchBaltika U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.50

Krylya Sovetov U19

2.02

Baltika U19

1.50

Krylya Sovetov U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 39 away

1.72

creates per match

0.95

2.04

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov U19

1.72

Baltika U19

0.95

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov U19

2.04

Baltika U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov U19+0.00on par

Baltika U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov U19 ↓

Baltika U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov U19 or draw

71%

Krylya Sovetov U19 or Baltika U19

78%

Draw or Baltika U19

50%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov U19 wins by 2+

29%

Baltika U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov U19 1+ goals

87%

Krylya Sovetov U19 2+ goals

60%

Krylya Sovetov U19 3+ goals

33%

Baltika U19 1+ goals

78%

Baltika U19 2+ goals

44%

Baltika U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Baltika U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov U19 at home — creates 1.72, concedes 2.04 · 67 matches

Baltika U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov U19 attack 1.72 + Baltika U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.02

Baltika U19 attack 0.95 + Krylya Sovetov U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Krylya Sovetov U19 scores more

50%

level

22%

Baltika U19 scores more

29%

Krylya Sovetov U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff