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Krylya Sovetov II vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Krylya Sovetov II
Krylya Sovetov II
FT
3 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
8/15/2020Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Krylya Sovetov II44%
×Draw25%
Zenit Izhevsk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylya Sovetov II
1.58
Zenit Izhevsk
1.28

Krylya Sovetov II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 41 away

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov II
1.49
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov II
1.63
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Krylya Sovetov II+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov II ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov II or draw
69%
Krylya Sovetov II or Zenit Izhevsk
75%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
56%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov II wins by 2+
22%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov II 1+ goals
79%
Krylya Sovetov II 2+ goals
47%
Krylya Sovetov II 3+ goals
21%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
72%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
37%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov II (draw refunded)
59%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov II attack 1.49 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Krylya Sovetov II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krylya Sovetov II scores more
44%
level
25%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
31%

Krylya Sovetov II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Krylya Sovetov II 3–0 Zenit Izhevsk

Krylya Sovetov II beat Zenit Izhevsk 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Samara.