Krylya Sovetov II 1–2 Lada Tolyatti: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lada Tolyatti

I. Bober 32'

R. Gogniev 79'

V. Pyanchenko 52'

10/19/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Krylya Sovetov II61%

×Draw20%

Lada Tolyatti19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya Sovetov IIExpected goals in this matchLada Tolyatti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.17

Krylya Sovetov II

2.21

Lada Tolyatti

1.17

Krylya Sovetov II creates 89% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 41 away

1.49

creates per match

0.71

1.63

allows per match

2.93

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov II

1.49

Lada Tolyatti

0.71

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov II

1.63

Lada Tolyatti

2.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov II+0.00on par

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov II ↓

Lada Tolyatti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov II or draw

81%

Krylya Sovetov II or Lada Tolyatti

80%

Draw or Lada Tolyatti

39%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov II wins by 2+

38%

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov II 1+ goals

89%

Krylya Sovetov II 2+ goals

65%

Krylya Sovetov II 3+ goals

38%

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

69%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

33%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov II (draw refunded)

76%

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov II attack 1.49 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.21

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Krylya Sovetov II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Krylya Sovetov II scores more

61%

level

20%

Lada Tolyatti scores more

19%

Krylya Sovetov II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

I. Bober

43'

D. Manonin← S. Stroganov

46'

A. Mutovkin← I. Gribakin

52'

V. Pyanchenko

65'

V. Ignatenko← K. Popov

65'

N. Maksimov← E. Pankov

79'

R. Gogniev

87'

A. Radaev← A. Lysov

87'

D. Malikov← I. Bober

88'

G. Minosyan← S. Sorokin

90+2'

V. Zhuravlev← R. Gogniev

Krylya

Lada

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Shukov

46'▲A. Mutovkin←▼I. Gribakin

65'▲V. Ignatenko←▼K. Popov

65'▲N. Maksimov←▼E. Pankov

87'▲A. Radaev←▼A. Lysov

87'▲D. Malikov←▼I. Bober

Krylya Sovetov II substitutes

MutovkinIgnatenkoMaksimovRadaevMalikov

Manager: V. Shcherbak

43'▲D. Manonin←▼S. Stroganov

88'▲G. Minosyan←▼S. Sorokin

90+2'▲V. Zhuravlev←▼R. Gogniev

Lada Tolyatti substitutes

ManoninMinosyanZhuravlev

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov II vs Lada Tolyatti

Lada Tolyatti beat Krylya Sovetov II 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on October 19, 2024.

Goals: I. Bober (32'), V. Pyanchenko (52'), R. Gogniev (79').

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Samara.

Krylya Sovetov II vs Lada Tolyatti — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov II vs Lada Tolyatti