Krylya Sovetov II 0–3 Amkar: Result & Stats

Krylya Sovetov II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Amkar

E. Tyukalov 90'

D. Dibirgadzhiev 90'

D. Chushyalov 14'

8/31/2025

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Krylya Sovetov II31%

×Draw25%

Amkar45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylya Sovetov IIExpected goals in this matchAmkar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.60

Krylya Sovetov II

1.29

Amkar

1.60

Amkar creates 24% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 53 away

1.49

creates per match

1.58

1.63

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Krylya Sovetov II

1.49

Amkar

1.58

allows per match

Krylya Sovetov II

1.63

Amkar

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylya Sovetov II+0.00on par

Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylya Sovetov II ↓

Amkar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Krylya Sovetov II or draw

55%

Krylya Sovetov II or Amkar

75%

Draw or Amkar

69%

Winning margin

Krylya Sovetov II wins by 2+

13%

Amkar wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Krylya Sovetov II 1+ goals

72%

Krylya Sovetov II 2+ goals

37%

Krylya Sovetov II 3+ goals

14%

Amkar 1+ goals

80%

Amkar 2+ goals

47%

Amkar 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Krylya Sovetov II (draw refunded)

41%

Amkar (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylya Sovetov II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylya Sovetov II attack 1.49 + Amkar defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Amkar attack 1.58 + Krylya Sovetov II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krylya Sovetov II scores more

31%

level

25%

Amkar scores more

45%

Amkar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

D. Chushyalov

40'

D. Chushyalov

46'

D. Saveljev← N. Ivlev

46'

A. Azbukin← E. Chistyakov

56'

A. Chalyi

59'

L. Sharifullin

62'

E. Y. Truntaev← A. Chalyi

67'

K. Korolkov← L. Tolkachev

70'

D. Saveljev

72'

A. Belikov← G. Volkov

82'

E. Tyukalov← A. Kotik

85'

E. Borisov← E. Karpitskiy

90+3'

N. Goldobin← D. Zuev

90+3'

D. Dibirgadzhiev← D. Chushyalov

90'

E. Tyukalov

90'

D. Dibirgadzhiev

Krylya

Amkar

1

4

44

30

33

14

⚽

▼

Chushyalo

19

Sharifull

77

▼

Zuev

6

▼

Tolkachev

20

Kalayda

9

▼

71

56

89

63

▼

Chistyako

44

▼

Volkov

55

▼

Chalyi

72

▼

65

82

33

29

▼

Karpitski

Manager: D. Shukov

46'▲D. Saveljev←▼N. Ivlev

46'▲A. Azbukin←▼E. Chistyakov

62'▲E. Y. Truntaev←▼A. Chalyi

72'▲A. Belikov←▼G. Volkov

85'▲E. Borisov←▼E. Karpitskiy

Krylya Sovetov II substitutes

61Beltyukov16Osadchiy50Truntaev59Saveljev68Azbukin67Bazygin96Borisov85Belikov

Manager: A. Blazhko

67'▲K. Korolkov←▼L. Tolkachev

82'▲E. Tyukalov←▼A. Kotik

90+3'▲N. Goldobin←▼D. Zuev

90+3'▲D. Dibirgadzhiev←▼D. Chushyalov

Amkar substitutes

35Aysin3Zhilov45Pridyuk95Chernyshev97Goldobin7Tyukalov10Korolkov11Dibirgadzhiev

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov II vs Amkar

Amkar beat Krylya Sovetov II 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on August 31, 2025.

Goals: D. Chushyalov (14'), E. Tyukalov (90'), D. Dibirgadzhiev (90').

Krylya Sovetov II vs Amkar — Second League - Group 4 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Krylya Sovetov II vs Amkar