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Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2018

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
Preview
15:00
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
10/10/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Samara Arena
Big match
37%
Krylia Sovetov
model favours
37%27%36%

Spartak Moscow score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov37%
×Draw27%
Spartak Moscow36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.29
Spartak Moscow
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 120 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.31
Spartak Moscow
1.35

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.17
Spartak Moscow
1.26

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
64%
Krylia Sovetov or Spartak Moscow
73%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
63%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
17%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
72%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
37%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
14%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
36%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
51%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spartak Moscow attack 1.35 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
37%
level
27%
Spartak Moscow scores more
36%

Krylia Sovetov at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Spartak Moscow have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 67% of Spartak Moscow’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Krylia Sovetov win just 17% against the top half (vs 43% against the bottom)
  • Krylia Sovetov fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Krylia Sovetov
Balanced
Spartak Moscow
Possession-dominant
47%Possession62%
77%Pass accuracy83%
10.9ShotsBiggest gap14.6
1.68xG1.48
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Krylia SovetovSpartak Moscow

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Krylia Sovetov
0
Draws
7
Spartak Moscow
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 40%
2–32–11–20–21–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sovetov
LLLD
Moscow
LDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Krylia Sovetov host Spartak Moscow

October 10, 2026: Krylia Sovetov take on Spartak Moscow in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Krylia Sovetov host Spartak Moscow at Samara Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.