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Krylia Sovetov vs Pyunik Yerevan — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
CANC
13:00
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
2/7/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Krylia Sovetov47%
×Draw27%
Pyunik Yerevan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.43
Pyunik Yerevan
1.01

Krylia Sovetov creates 42% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.30
Pyunik Yerevan
1.11

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
0.90
Pyunik Yerevan
1.56

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Pyunik Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Pyunik Yerevan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
73%
Krylia Sovetov or Pyunik Yerevan
73%
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
53%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
23%
Pyunik Yerevan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
76%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
42%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
17%
Pyunik Yerevan 1+ goals
64%
Pyunik Yerevan 2+ goals
27%
Pyunik Yerevan 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
64%
Pyunik Yerevan (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Pyunik Yerevan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.30 + Pyunik Yerevan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Pyunik Yerevan attack 1.11 + Krylia Sovetov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
47%
level
27%
Pyunik Yerevan scores more
27%

Krylia Sovetov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krylia Sovetov face Pyunik Yerevan (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Krylia Sovetov hosting Pyunik Yerevan. Match starts February 7, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Krylia Sovetov host Pyunik Yerevan at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.