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Krylia Sovetov vs Ozgon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ozgon
Ozgon
2/9/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Krylia Sovetov54%
×Draw23%
Ozgon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.81
Ozgon
1.11

Krylia Sovetov creates 63% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.30
Ozgon
1.33

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
0.90
Ozgon
2.33

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Ozgon+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Ozgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
77%
Krylia Sovetov or Ozgon
77%
Draw or Ozgon
46%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
30%
Ozgon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
84%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
54%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
27%
Ozgon 1+ goals
67%
Ozgon 2+ goals
30%
Ozgon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
70%
Ozgon (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Ozgon away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.30 + Ozgon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ozgon attack 1.33 + Krylia Sovetov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
54%
level
23%
Ozgon scores more
23%

Krylia Sovetov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Krylia Sovetov 3–0 Ozgon

Krylia Sovetov beat Ozgon 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 9, 2026.