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Krylia Sovetov vs Lokomotiv — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
CANC
13:00
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
2/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Krylia Sovetov39%
×Draw33%
Lokomotiv28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
0.99
Lokomotiv
0.79

Krylia Sovetov creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.30
Lokomotiv
0.67

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
0.90
Lokomotiv
0.67

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
72%
Krylia Sovetov or Lokomotiv
67%
Draw or Lokomotiv
61%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
15%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
63%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
26%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
8%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
55%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
19%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
58%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.30 + Lokomotiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.99

Lokomotiv attack 0.67 + Krylia Sovetov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
39%
level
33%
Lokomotiv scores more
28%

Krylia Sovetov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Krylia Sovetov host Lokomotiv

February 17, 2026: Krylia Sovetov take on Lokomotiv in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.