Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Krylia Sovetov

Preview

16:00

Dinamo Makhachkala

10/27/2026

Cup · Group Stage - 5Samara Arena

Big match

39%

Krylia Sovetov

model favours

39%24%37%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

61%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Krylia Sovetov39%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Makhachkala37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.54

Krylia Sovetov

1.60

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

1.88

creates per match

1.33

1.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.88

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.33

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.76

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

63%

Krylia Sovetov or Dinamo Makhachkala

76%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

61%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

80%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

47%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

22%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

79%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

45%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

52%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.88 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

39%

level

24%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

37%

Krylia Sovetov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Sovetov

LLLD

Makhachkala

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff