Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
3/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Anzhi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala48%
×Draw27%
Krylia Sovetov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.43
Krylia Sovetov
0.97

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 47% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 106 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
Krylia Sovetov
1.03

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.90
Krylia Sovetov
1.79

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Krylia Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
74%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Krylia Sovetov
73%
Draw or Krylia Sovetov
52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
23%
Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
17%
Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
62%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
25%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
65%
Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Krylia Sovetov away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.79 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.06 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.43

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.03 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
48%
level
27%
Krylia Sovetov scores more
26%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Krylia Sovetov

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Krylia Sovetov 4-0 in Premier League on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Anzhi Arena in Kaspiysk.