Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Krylia Sovetov

Preview

14:00

Dinamo Makhachkala

8/16/2026

Premier League · Round 4Samara Arena

Big match

49%

Krylia Sovetov

model favours

49%28%23%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

62%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Krylia Sovetov49%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Makhachkala23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krylia SovetovExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.84

Krylia Sovetov

1.36

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.84

Krylia Sovetov creates 62% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 31 away

1.31

creates per match

0.52

1.17

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.31

Dinamo Makhachkala

0.52

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov

1.17

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw

77%

Krylia Sovetov or Dinamo Makhachkala

72%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

51%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+

23%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals

74%

Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals

39%

Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals

16%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

57%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

21%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)

68%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more

49%

level

28%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

23%

Krylia Sovetov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)
Krylia Sovetov fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Krylia Sovetov

Balanced

Dinamo Makhachkala

Direct / counter-attacking

48%Possession44%

77%Pass accuracy68%

10.8Shots10.6

1.39xGBiggest gap0.88

Krylia SovetovDinamo Makhachkala

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1

Krylia Sovetov

1

Draws

4

Dinamo Makhachkala

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 17%

2–00–20–43–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Sovetov

LLLD

Makhachkala

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff