Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat — Premier League 2018

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
Preview
16:00
Akhmat
Akhmat
3/20/2027Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Samara Arena
Big match
44%
Krylia Sovetov
model favours
44%27%29%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Krylia Sovetov44%
×Draw27%
Akhmat29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.39
Akhmat
1.09

Krylia Sovetov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 121 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.31
Akhmat
1.01

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.17
Akhmat
1.47

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
71%
Krylia Sovetov or Akhmat
73%
Draw or Akhmat
56%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
21%
Akhmat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
75%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
40%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
16%
Akhmat 1+ goals
66%
Akhmat 2+ goals
30%
Akhmat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
60%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 104 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.31 + Akhmat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Akhmat attack 1.01 + Krylia Sovetov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
44%
level
27%
Akhmat scores more
29%

Krylia Sovetov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Akhmat outscore their xG (1.7 vs 0.5 expected)
  • Krylia Sovetov fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Krylia Sovetov
Balanced
Akhmat
Direct / counter-attacking
46%Possession43%
77%Pass accuracy72%
10.8Shots13.6
1.27xGBiggest gap0.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Krylia SovetovAkhmat

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
5
Akhmat
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 70%
2–21–32–11–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Sovetov
LLLD
Akhmat
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Krylia Sovetov host Akhmat

March 20, 2027: Krylia Sovetov take on Akhmat in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Krylia Sovetov host Akhmat at Samara Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.