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Krylia Sovetov vs Akhmat — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Krylia Sovetov
Krylia Sovetov
CANC
13:00
Akhmat
Akhmat
2/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Krylia Sovetov39%
×Draw28%
Akhmat32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krylia Sovetov
1.21
Akhmat
1.07

Krylia Sovetov creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Krylia Sovetov
1.30
Akhmat
1.25

allows per match

Krylia Sovetov
0.90
Akhmat
1.13

finishing

Krylia Sovetov+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krylia Sovetov ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Krylia Sovetov or draw
68%
Krylia Sovetov or Akhmat
72%
Draw or Akhmat
61%

Winning margin

Krylia Sovetov wins by 2+
17%
Akhmat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krylia Sovetov 1+ goals
70%
Krylia Sovetov 2+ goals
34%
Krylia Sovetov 3+ goals
12%
Akhmat 1+ goals
66%
Akhmat 2+ goals
29%
Akhmat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Krylia Sovetov (draw refunded)
55%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krylia Sovetov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krylia Sovetov attack 1.30 + Akhmat defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Akhmat attack 1.25 + Krylia Sovetov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krylia Sovetov scores more
39%
level
28%
Akhmat scores more
32%

Krylia Sovetov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krylia Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krylia Sovetov face Akhmat (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Krylia Sovetov hosting Akhmat. Match starts February 13, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Krylia Sovetov host Akhmat at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.