Krupa na Vrbasu 1–0 Zvijezda 09: Result & Stats

Krupa na Vrbasu

FT

1 – 0

Zvijezda 09

10/9/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 9Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu68%

×Draw18%

Zvijezda 0913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krupa na VrbasuExpected goals in this matchZvijezda 09

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.91

Krupa na Vrbasu

2.31

Zvijezda 09

0.91

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 154% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 79 away

3.41

creates per match

1.27

0.54

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

3.41

Zvijezda 09

1.27

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.54

Zvijezda 09

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Zvijezda 09+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Zvijezda 09 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw

87%

Krupa na Vrbasu or Zvijezda 09

82%

Draw or Zvijezda 09

32%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

45%

Zvijezda 09 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

90%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

67%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

40%

Zvijezda 09 1+ goals

60%

Zvijezda 09 2+ goals

23%

Zvijezda 09 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

84%

Zvijezda 09 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

Zvijezda 09 away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + Zvijezda 09 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 2.31

Zvijezda 09 attack 1.27 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

68%

level

18%

Zvijezda 09 scores more

13%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Krupa na Vrbasu 1–0 Zvijezda 09

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Zvijezda 09 1-0 in 1st League - RS on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu in Krupa na Vrbasu.

Krupa na Vrbasu vs Zvijezda 09 — 1st League - RS 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

1st League - RS: Krupa na Vrbasu 1–0 Zvijezda 09