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Krupa na Vrbasu vs Slavija — 1st League - RS 2019

Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
FT
4 – 0
Slavija
Slavija
8/24/20191st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 3Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu (Krupa na Vrbasu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu76%
×Draw15%
Slavija9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krupa na Vrbasu
2.50
Slavija
0.72

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 247% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 103 away

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
3.41
Slavija
0.90

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
0.54
Slavija
1.60

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par
Slavija+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Slavija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw
91%
Krupa na Vrbasu or Slavija
85%
Draw or Slavija
24%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
53%
Slavija wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
92%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
71%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
45%
Slavija 1+ goals
51%
Slavija 2+ goals
16%
Slavija 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
90%
Slavija (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

Slavija away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + Slavija defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.50

Slavija attack 0.90 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
76%
level
15%
Slavija scores more
9%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Krupa na Vrbasu 4–0 Slavija

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Slavija 4-0 in 1st League - RS on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu (Krupa na Vrbasu).