Krupa na Vrbasu 1–1 Siroki Brijeg: Result & Stats

Krupa na Vrbasu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Siroki Brijeg

3/6/2021

Premijer Liga · Round 21Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu42%

×Draw28%

Siroki Brijeg30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krupa na VrbasuExpected goals in this matchSiroki Brijeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.05

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.28

Siroki Brijeg

1.05

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 110 away

1.13

creates per match

0.97

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.13

Siroki Brijeg

0.97

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.13

Siroki Brijeg

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Siroki Brijeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw

70%

Krupa na Vrbasu or Siroki Brijeg

72%

Draw or Siroki Brijeg

58%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

19%

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

72%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

37%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

14%

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals

65%

Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals

28%

Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

58%

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.13 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

42%

level

28%

Siroki Brijeg scores more

30%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff