Krupa na Vrbasu 2–0 Rudar Prijedor: Result & Stats

Krupa na Vrbasu

FT

2 – 0

Rudar Prijedor

3/7/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 15Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu (Krupa na Vrbasu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu68%

×Draw19%

Rudar Prijedor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krupa na VrbasuExpected goals in this matchRudar Prijedor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.79

Krupa na Vrbasu

2.11

Rudar Prijedor

0.79

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 167% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 73 away

3.41

creates per match

1.03

0.54

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

3.41

Rudar Prijedor

1.03

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.54

Rudar Prijedor

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Rudar Prijedor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Rudar Prijedor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw

87%

Krupa na Vrbasu or Rudar Prijedor

81%

Draw or Rudar Prijedor

32%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

43%

Rudar Prijedor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

88%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

62%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

35%

Rudar Prijedor 1+ goals

55%

Rudar Prijedor 2+ goals

19%

Rudar Prijedor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

84%

Rudar Prijedor (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

Rudar Prijedor away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + Rudar Prijedor defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 2.11

Rudar Prijedor attack 1.03 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

68%

level

19%

Rudar Prijedor scores more

13%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krupa na Vrbasu vs Rudar Prijedor

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Rudar Prijedor 2-0 in 1st League - RS on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu (Krupa na Vrbasu).

Krupa na Vrbasu vs Rudar Prijedor — 1st League - RS 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Krupa na Vrbasu vs Rudar Prijedor