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Krupa na Vrbasu vs Laktaši — 1st League - RS 2019

Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
FT
3 – 1
Laktaši
Laktaši
10/1/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 10Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Krupa na Vrbasu62%
×Draw20%
Laktaši19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krupa na Vrbasu
2.21
Laktaši
1.13

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 96% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 65 away

creates per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
3.41
Laktaši
1.71

allows per match

Krupa na Vrbasu
0.54
Laktaši
1.00

finishing

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par
Laktaši+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krupa na Vrbasu ↓

Laktaši →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Krupa na Vrbasu or draw
81%
Krupa na Vrbasu or Laktaši
80%
Draw or Laktaši
38%

Winning margin

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
39%
Laktaši wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
89%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
65%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
38%
Laktaši 1+ goals
68%
Laktaši 2+ goals
31%
Laktaši 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
77%
Laktaši (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krupa na Vrbasu at home — creates 3.41, concedes 0.54 · 39 matches

Laktaši away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 3.41 + Laktaši defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Laktaši attack 1.71 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
62%
level
20%
Laktaši scores more
19%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krupa na Vrbasu vs Laktaši

Krupa na Vrbasu beat Laktaši 3-1 in 1st League - RS on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Krupa na Vrbasu in Krupa na Vrbasu.