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Krško vs Triglav — 2. SNL 2019

Krško
Krško
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Triglav
Triglav
J. Supuk 90'
T. Vinogradac 62'
T. Pokorn 29'
O. Kregar 26'
10/11/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 10Stadion Matije Gubca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Krško26%
×Draw24%
Triglav50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krško
1.14
Triglav
1.68

Triglav creates 47% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 88 away

creates per match

Krško
1.18
Triglav
1.53

allows per match

Krško
1.82
Triglav
1.10

finishing

Krško+0.00on par
Triglav+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krško ↓

Triglav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krško or draw
50%
Krško or Triglav
76%
Draw or Triglav
74%

Winning margin

Krško wins by 2+
10%
Triglav wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Krško 1+ goals
68%
Krško 2+ goals
32%
Krško 3+ goals
11%
Triglav 1+ goals
81%
Triglav 2+ goals
50%
Triglav 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Krško (draw refunded)
34%
Triglav (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krško at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

Triglav away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krško attack 1.18 + Triglav defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Triglav attack 1.53 + Krško defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Krško scores more
26%
level
24%
Triglav scores more
50%

Triglav at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Triglav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
O. Kregar
29'
T. Pokorn
62'
T. Vinogradac
90'
J. Supuk
Krško
Triglav
R. Regvar
Manager: R. Regvar
D. Matić
Manager: D. Matić

Match Recap: Krško vs Triglav

Triglav beat Krško 4-0 in 2. SNL on October 11, 2025.

Goals: O. Kregar (26'), T. Pokorn (29'), T. Vinogradac (62'), J. Supuk (90').

The match was played at Stadion Matije Gubca.