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Krško vs Nafta — 2. SNL 2019

Krško
Krško
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nafta
Nafta
T. Gorenc Stankovic 61'
A. Marosa 57'
9/13/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 6Stadion Matije Gubca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Krško24%
×Draw23%
Nafta53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krško
1.21
Nafta
1.89

Nafta creates 56% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 83 away

creates per match

Krško
1.18
Nafta
1.95

allows per match

Krško
1.82
Nafta
1.25

finishing

Krško+0.00on par
Nafta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krško ↓

Nafta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Krško or draw
47%
Krško or Nafta
77%
Draw or Nafta
76%

Winning margin

Krško wins by 2+
10%
Nafta wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Krško 1+ goals
70%
Krško 2+ goals
34%
Krško 3+ goals
12%
Nafta 1+ goals
85%
Nafta 2+ goals
56%
Nafta 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Krško (draw refunded)
31%
Nafta (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krško at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

Nafta away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krško attack 1.18 + Nafta defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nafta attack 1.95 + Krško defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Krško scores more
24%
level
23%
Nafta scores more
53%

Nafta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nafta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
A. Marosa
61'
T. Gorenc Stankovic
Krško
Nafta
R. Regvar
Manager: R. Regvar
Jozsef Bozsik
Manager: Jozsef Bozsik

2. SNL: Krško 0–2 Nafta

Nafta beat Krško 2-0 in 2. SNL on September 13, 2025.

Goals: A. Marosa (57'), T. Gorenc Stankovic (61').

The match was played at Stadion Matije Gubca in Krško.