Krško 2–2 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Krško

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fužinar

O. Bubnjević 72'

Ž. Baskera 65'

E. Horvat 69'

M. Potokar 7'

8/8/2021

2. SNL · Round 2Štadion Matije Gubca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Krško36%

×Draw24%

Fužinar40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrškoExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.59

Krško

1.50

Fužinar

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

1.18

creates per match

1.36

1.82

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Krško

1.18

Fužinar

1.36

allows per match

Krško

1.82

Fužinar

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krško+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krško ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Krško or draw

60%

Krško or Fužinar

76%

Draw or Fužinar

64%

Winning margin

Krško wins by 2+

17%

Fužinar wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Krško 1+ goals

78%

Krško 2+ goals

44%

Krško 3+ goals

19%

Fužinar 1+ goals

80%

Fužinar 2+ goals

47%

Fužinar 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Krško (draw refunded)

47%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krško at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krško attack 1.18 + Fužinar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fužinar attack 1.36 + Krško defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krško scores more

36%

level

24%

Fužinar scores more

40%

Fužinar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Potokar

46'

M. Barać← B. Stopar

55'

O. Bubnjević← K. Stanić

63'

L. Radić← Ž. Pesjak

65'

Ž. Baskera

66'

J. Jurčec← M. Predanič

69'

E. Horvat

72'

O. Bubnjević

81'

T. Trdina← C. Kitek

89'

N. Vuksanović← M. Potokar

Krško

Fužinar

Marčič

Kašnik

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Leskovar

46'▲M. Barać←▼B. Stopar

55'▲O. Bubnjević←▼K. Stanić

66'▲J. Jurčec←▼M. Predanič

Krško substitutes

BaraćBubnjevićJurčecBanićLovrićKurentVidmar

Manager: S. Oblak

63'▲L. Radić←▼Ž. Pesjak

81'▲T. Trdina←▼C. Kitek

89'▲N. Vuksanović←▼M. Potokar

Fužinar substitutes

RadićTrdinaVuksanovićMrežarTurkušRauterSojč

2. SNL: Krško 2–2 Fužinar

Krško and Fužinar drew 2-2 in 2. SNL on August 8, 2021.

Goals: M. Potokar (7'), Ž. Baskera (65'), E. Horvat (69'), O. Bubnjević (72').

The match was played at Štadion Matije Gubca in Krško.

Krško vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. SNL: Krško 2–2 Fužinar