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Krško vs Brinje-Grosuplje — 2. SNL 2019

Krško
Krško
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Brinje-Grosuplje
Brinje-Grosuplje
N. Pirc 34'
K. Benkic 90+3'
V. Hojc 70'
4/18/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 24Stadion Matije Gubca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Krško25%
×Draw23%
Brinje-Grosuplje52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krško
1.20
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.81

Brinje-Grosuplje creates 51% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 60 away

creates per match

Krško
1.18
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.80

allows per match

Krško
1.82
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.22

finishing

Krško+0.00on par
Brinje-Grosuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krško ↓

Brinje-Grosuplje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Krško or draw
48%
Krško or Brinje-Grosuplje
77%
Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje
75%

Winning margin

Krško wins by 2+
10%
Brinje-Grosuplje wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Krško 1+ goals
70%
Krško 2+ goals
34%
Krško 3+ goals
12%
Brinje-Grosuplje 1+ goals
84%
Brinje-Grosuplje 2+ goals
54%
Brinje-Grosuplje 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Krško (draw refunded)
33%
Brinje-Grosuplje (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krško at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

Brinje-Grosuplje away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krško attack 1.18 + Brinje-Grosuplje defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Brinje-Grosuplje attack 1.80 + Krško defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Krško scores more
25%
level
23%
Brinje-Grosuplje scores more
52%

Brinje-Grosuplje at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brinje-Grosuplje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
N. Pirc
70'
V. Hojc
90+3'
K. Benkic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. SNL: Krško 1–2 Brinje-Grosuplje

Brinje-Grosuplje beat Krško 2-1 in 2. SNL on April 18, 2026.

Goals: N. Pirc (34'), V. Hojc (70'), K. Benkic (90+3').

The match was played at Stadion Matije Gubca.