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Krnov vs Šumperk — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Krnov
Krnov
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Šumperk
Šumperk
4/21/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 22Klaus Union Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Krnov31%
×Draw26%
Šumperk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krnov
1.21
Šumperk
1.48

Šumperk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Krnov
1.30
Šumperk
1.43

allows per match

Krnov
1.53
Šumperk
1.13

finishing

Krnov+0.00on par
Šumperk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krnov ↓

Šumperk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Krnov or draw
57%
Krnov or Šumperk
74%
Draw or Šumperk
69%

Winning margin

Krnov wins by 2+
13%
Šumperk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Krnov 1+ goals
70%
Krnov 2+ goals
34%
Krnov 3+ goals
12%
Šumperk 1+ goals
77%
Šumperk 2+ goals
43%
Šumperk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Krnov (draw refunded)
42%
Šumperk (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krnov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

Šumperk away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krnov attack 1.30 + Šumperk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Šumperk attack 1.43 + Krnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krnov scores more
31%
level
26%
Šumperk scores more
43%

Šumperk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Šumperk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krnov vs Šumperk

Krnov and Šumperk drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Klaus Union Arena in Krnov.