Krnov 0–0 Petřvald na Moravě: Result & Stats

Krnov

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Petřvald na Moravě

4/13/2025

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 21Klaus Union Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Krnov36%

×Draw24%

Petřvald na Moravě40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrnovExpected goals in this matchPetřvald na Moravě

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.55

Krnov

1.46

Petřvald na Moravě

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

1.57

1.53

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Krnov

1.30

Petřvald na Moravě

1.57

allows per match

Krnov

1.53

Petřvald na Moravě

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krnov+0.00on par

Petřvald na Moravě+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krnov ↓

Petřvald na Moravě →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Krnov or draw

60%

Krnov or Petřvald na Moravě

76%

Draw or Petřvald na Moravě

64%

Winning margin

Krnov wins by 2+

17%

Petřvald na Moravě wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Krnov 1+ goals

77%

Krnov 2+ goals

43%

Krnov 3+ goals

18%

Petřvald na Moravě 1+ goals

79%

Petřvald na Moravě 2+ goals

46%

Petřvald na Moravě 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Krnov (draw refunded)

47%

Petřvald na Moravě (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krnov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

Petřvald na Moravě away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krnov attack 1.30 + Petřvald na Moravě defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Petřvald na Moravě attack 1.57 + Krnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Krnov scores more

36%

level

24%

Petřvald na Moravě scores more

40%

Petřvald na Moravě at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Petřvald na Moravě will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff