Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krnov vs Jiskra Rýmařov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Krnov
Krnov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
9/4/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 5Stadion FK Krnov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Krnov38%
×Draw24%
Jiskra Rýmařov38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krnov
1.50
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Krnov
1.30
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.48

allows per match

Krnov
1.53
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.70

finishing

Krnov+0.00on par
Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krnov ↓

Jiskra Rýmařov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Krnov or draw
62%
Krnov or Jiskra Rýmařov
76%
Draw or Jiskra Rýmařov
62%

Winning margin

Krnov wins by 2+
18%
Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Krnov 1+ goals
78%
Krnov 2+ goals
44%
Krnov 3+ goals
19%
Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
78%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
44%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Krnov (draw refunded)
50%
Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krnov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

Jiskra Rýmařov away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.70 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krnov attack 1.30 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.48 + Krnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krnov scores more
38%
level
24%
Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
38%

Krnov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Krnov 1–0 Jiskra Rýmařov

Krnov beat Jiskra Rýmařov 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Krnov in Krnov.