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Krnov vs Havířov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Krnov
Krnov
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Havířov
Havířov
6/9/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Stadion FK Krnov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Krnov32%
×Draw23%
Havířov45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krnov
1.46
Havířov
1.77

Havířov creates 21% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 75 away

creates per match

Krnov
1.30
Havířov
2.01

allows per match

Krnov
1.53
Havířov
1.61

finishing

Krnov+0.00on par
Havířov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krnov ↓

Havířov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Krnov or draw
55%
Krnov or Havířov
77%
Draw or Havířov
68%

Winning margin

Krnov wins by 2+
15%
Havířov wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Krnov 1+ goals
77%
Krnov 2+ goals
43%
Krnov 3+ goals
18%
Havířov 1+ goals
83%
Havířov 2+ goals
53%
Havířov 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Krnov (draw refunded)
42%
Havířov (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krnov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

Havířov away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krnov attack 1.30 + Havířov defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Havířov attack 2.01 + Krnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Krnov scores more
32%
level
23%
Havířov scores more
45%

Havířov at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Krnov 3–0 Havířov

Krnov beat Havířov 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Krnov in Krnov.