Krnov 0–0 Beskyd Frenštát: Result & Stats

Krnov

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beskyd Frenštát

3/10/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16Klaus Union Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Krnov48%

×Draw23%

Beskyd Frenštát29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrnovExpected goals in this matchBeskyd Frenštát

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.38

Krnov

1.83

Beskyd Frenštát

1.38

Krnov creates 33% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

1.30

creates per match

1.23

1.53

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Krnov

1.30

Beskyd Frenštát

1.23

allows per match

Krnov

1.53

Beskyd Frenštát

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krnov+0.00on par

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krnov ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Krnov or draw

71%

Krnov or Beskyd Frenštát

77%

Draw or Beskyd Frenštát

52%

Winning margin

Krnov wins by 2+

26%

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Krnov 1+ goals

84%

Krnov 2+ goals

54%

Krnov 3+ goals

28%

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

75%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

40%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Krnov (draw refunded)

62%

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krnov at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krnov attack 1.30 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Krnov defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Krnov scores more

48%

level

23%

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

29%

Krnov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Krnov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff