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Krka vs Dravograd — 2. SNL 2019

Krka
Krka
CANC
15:00
Dravograd
Dravograd
5/16/20202. SNL2. SNL · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Krka61%
×Draw19%
Dravograd19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krka
2.31
Dravograd
1.23

Krka creates 88% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 10 away

creates per match

Krka
1.62
Dravograd
1.10

allows per match

Krka
1.36
Dravograd
3.00

finishing

Krka+0.00on par
Dravograd+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krka ↓

Dravograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Krka or draw
81%
Krka or Dravograd
81%
Draw or Dravograd
39%

Winning margin

Krka wins by 2+
39%
Dravograd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Krka 1+ goals
90%
Krka 2+ goals
67%
Krka 3+ goals
40%
Dravograd 1+ goals
71%
Dravograd 2+ goals
35%
Dravograd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Krka (draw refunded)
76%
Dravograd (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krka at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

Dravograd away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krka attack 1.62 + Dravograd defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Dravograd attack 1.10 + Krka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Krka scores more
61%
level
19%
Dravograd scores more
19%

Krka at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Krka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krka vs Dravograd — Match Preview

Krka face Dravograd on May 16, 2020 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.