Krka 3–1 Brda Dobrovo: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Krka

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brda Dobrovo

D. Škrbec 63'

L. Pavič 55'

Ž. Kastrevec 12'

T. Golob 46'

9/25/2019

2. SNL · Round 10Stadion Portoval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Krka55%

×Draw22%

Brda Dobrovo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrkaExpected goals in this matchBrda Dobrovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.18

Krka

1.96

Brda Dobrovo

1.18

Krka creates 66% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 23 away

1.62

creates per match

1.00

1.36

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Krka

1.62

Brda Dobrovo

1.00

allows per match

Krka

1.36

Brda Dobrovo

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krka+0.00on par

Brda Dobrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krka ↓

Brda Dobrovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Krka or draw

77%

Krka or Brda Dobrovo

78%

Draw or Brda Dobrovo

45%

Winning margin

Krka wins by 2+

32%

Brda Dobrovo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Krka 1+ goals

86%

Krka 2+ goals

58%

Krka 3+ goals

31%

Brda Dobrovo 1+ goals

69%

Brda Dobrovo 2+ goals

33%

Brda Dobrovo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Krka (draw refunded)

71%

Brda Dobrovo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krka at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

Brda Dobrovo away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krka attack 1.62 + Brda Dobrovo defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.96

Brda Dobrovo attack 1.00 + Krka defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Krka scores more

55%

level

22%

Brda Dobrovo scores more

23%

Krka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Krka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Ž. Kastrevec

46'

L. Pavič← G. Schweiger

46'

T. Golob

55'

L. Pavič

59'

Jure Bužinel← Dawoud Jalinous

63'

D. Škrbec

69'

D. Hrka← Kim Dohyun

73'

D. Jusufagić← R. Bužinel

74'

M. Potokar← L. Tičić

84'

M. Perše← K. Jogan

Krka

Brda

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Z. Željkovič

46'▲L. Pavič←▼G. Schweiger

69'▲D. Hrka←▼Kim Dohyun

74'▲M. Potokar←▼L. Tičić

Krka substitutes

PavičHrkaPotokarMikrutKisovecKižlinVranešič

Manager: D. Peršič

59'▲Jure Bužinel←▼Dawoud Jalinous

73'▲D. Jusufagić←▼R. Bužinel

84'▲M. Perše←▼K. Jogan

Brda Dobrovo substitutes

BužinelJusufagićPeršeMariničMusićPetrovčič