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Krk vs Marsonia — Second NL 2022

Krk
Krk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Marsonia
Marsonia
L. Burul 77'
S. Mahmutovic 31', 15'
10/21/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 10Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krk46%
×Draw24%
Marsonia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krk
1.71
Marsonia
1.33

Krk creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Krk
1.06
Marsonia
1.36

allows per match

Krk
1.31
Marsonia
2.36

finishing

Krk+0.00on par
Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krk ↓

Marsonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Krk or draw
70%
Krk or Marsonia
76%
Draw or Marsonia
54%

Winning margin

Krk wins by 2+
25%
Marsonia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Krk 1+ goals
82%
Krk 2+ goals
51%
Krk 3+ goals
24%
Marsonia 1+ goals
74%
Marsonia 2+ goals
38%
Marsonia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Krk (draw refunded)
61%
Marsonia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krk at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krk attack 1.06 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Krk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Krk scores more
46%
level
24%
Marsonia scores more
30%

Krk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Krk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Mahmutovic
31'
S. Mahmutovic
70'
I. Didovic
70'
I. Didovic
77'
L. Burul
90+6'
T. Bosnjakovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krk vs Marsonia

Marsonia beat Krk 2-1 in Second NL on October 21, 2023.

Goals: S. Mahmutovic (15', 31'), L. Burul (77').

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.