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Krk vs Križevci — Second NL 2022

Krk
Krk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Križevci
Križevci
11/4/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 12Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krk35%
×Draw27%
Križevci38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krk
1.21
Križevci
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

creates per match

Krk
1.06
Križevci
1.26

allows per match

Krk
1.31
Križevci
1.35

finishing

Krk+0.00on par
Križevci+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krk ↓

Križevci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Krk or draw
62%
Krk or Križevci
73%
Draw or Križevci
65%

Winning margin

Krk wins by 2+
15%
Križevci wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Krk 1+ goals
70%
Krk 2+ goals
34%
Krk 3+ goals
12%
Križevci 1+ goals
72%
Križevci 2+ goals
37%
Križevci 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Krk (draw refunded)
47%
Križevci (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krk at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Križevci away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krk attack 1.06 + Križevci defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Križevci attack 1.26 + Krk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Krk scores more
35%
level
27%
Križevci scores more
38%

Križevci at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Križevci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krk vs Križevci

Križevci beat Krk 1-0 in Second NL on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.