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Krk vs Karlovac 1919 — Second NL 2022

Krk
Krk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karlovac 1919
Karlovac 1919
9/9/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 4Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krk30%
×Draw28%
Karlovac 191942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krk
1.04
Karlovac 1919
1.29

Karlovac 1919 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Krk
1.06
Karlovac 1919
1.26

allows per match

Krk
1.31
Karlovac 1919
1.03

finishing

Krk+0.00on par
Karlovac 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krk ↓

Karlovac 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Krk or draw
58%
Krk or Karlovac 1919
72%
Draw or Karlovac 1919
70%

Winning margin

Krk wins by 2+
11%
Karlovac 1919 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Krk 1+ goals
65%
Krk 2+ goals
28%
Krk 3+ goals
9%
Karlovac 1919 1+ goals
72%
Karlovac 1919 2+ goals
37%
Karlovac 1919 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Krk (draw refunded)
42%
Karlovac 1919 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krk at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Karlovac 1919 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krk attack 1.06 + Karlovac 1919 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Karlovac 1919 attack 1.26 + Krk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Krk scores more
30%
level
28%
Karlovac 1919 scores more
42%

Karlovac 1919 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karlovac 1919 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krk vs Karlovac 1919

Krk beat Karlovac 1919 1-0 in Second NL on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.