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Krk vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Krk
Krk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
10/7/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 8Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Krk50%
×Draw24%
Belišće26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krk
1.73
Belišće
1.19

Krk creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Krk
1.06
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Krk
1.31
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Krk+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krk ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Krk or draw
74%
Krk or Belišće
76%
Draw or Belišće
50%

Winning margin

Krk wins by 2+
27%
Belišće wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krk 1+ goals
82%
Krk 2+ goals
52%
Krk 3+ goals
25%
Belišće 1+ goals
70%
Belišće 2+ goals
33%
Belišće 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krk (draw refunded)
65%
Belišće (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krk at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krk attack 1.06 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

Belišće attack 1.07 + Krk defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Krk scores more
50%
level
24%
Belišće scores more
26%

Krk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Krk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krk vs Belišće

Belišće beat Krk 1-0 in Second NL on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.