Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Križevci vs Hrvace — Second NL 2022

Križevci
Križevci
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Hrvace
Hrvace
5/25/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 29Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Križevci52%
×Draw23%
Hrvace24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Križevci
1.80
Hrvace
1.15

Križevci creates 57% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Križevci
1.87
Hrvace
1.49

allows per match

Križevci
0.80
Hrvace
1.73

finishing

Križevci+0.00on par
Hrvace+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Križevci ↓

Hrvace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Križevci or draw
76%
Križevci or Hrvace
77%
Draw or Hrvace
48%

Winning margin

Križevci wins by 2+
29%
Hrvace wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Križevci 1+ goals
83%
Križevci 2+ goals
54%
Križevci 3+ goals
27%
Hrvace 1+ goals
68%
Hrvace 2+ goals
32%
Hrvace 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Križevci (draw refunded)
68%
Hrvace (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Križevci at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Hrvace away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Križevci attack 1.87 + Hrvace defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.80

Hrvace attack 1.49 + Križevci defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Križevci scores more
52%
level
23%
Hrvace scores more
24%

Križevci at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Križevci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Križevci vs Hrvace

Križevci and Hrvace drew 3-3 in Second NL on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Križevci.