Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Križevci vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Križevci
Križevci
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
3/15/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 19Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Križevci61%
×Draw22%
Grobničan Čavle17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Križevci
1.90
Grobničan Čavle
0.89

Križevci creates 113% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Križevci
1.87
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Križevci
0.80
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Križevci+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Križevci ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Križevci or draw
83%
Križevci or Grobničan Čavle
78%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
39%

Winning margin

Križevci wins by 2+
36%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Križevci 1+ goals
85%
Križevci 2+ goals
56%
Križevci 3+ goals
29%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
59%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
22%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Križevci (draw refunded)
78%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Križevci at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Križevci attack 1.87 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.90

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Križevci defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Križevci scores more
61%
level
22%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
17%

Križevci at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Križevci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Križevci 2–0 Grobničan Čavle

Križevci beat Grobničan Čavle 2-0 in Second NL on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Križevci.