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Kristiansund II vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tiller
Tiller
I. H. Aalberg 90'
C. Aasbak 18'
L. Kolstad 65'
9/3/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 18Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kristiansund II39%
×Draw21%
Tiller39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund II
1.96
Tiller
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kristiansund II
1.69
Tiller
2.00

allows per match

Kristiansund II
1.92
Tiller
2.22

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw
61%
Kristiansund II or Tiller
79%
Draw or Tiller
61%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+
21%
Tiller wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals
86%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
58%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
31%
Tiller 1+ goals
86%
Tiller 2+ goals
58%
Tiller 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
50%
Tiller (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 1.69 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.96

Tiller attack 2.00 + Kristiansund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kristiansund II scores more
39%
level
21%
Tiller scores more
39%

Kristiansund II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kristiansund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
C. Aasbak
65'
L. Kolstad
90'
I. H. Aalberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kristiansund II vs Tiller

Kristiansund II beat Tiller 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 3, 2023.

Goals: C. Aasbak (18'), L. Kolstad (65'), I. H. Aalberg (90').

The match was played at Nordmøre stadion in Kristiansund.