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Kristiansund II vs Molde II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Molde II
Molde II
8/5/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 15Omsundet stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kristiansund II41%
×Draw22%
Molde II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund II
1.92
Molde II
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kristiansund II
1.69
Molde II
1.70

allows per match

Kristiansund II
1.92
Molde II
2.15

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par
Molde II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Molde II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw
63%
Kristiansund II or Molde II
78%
Draw or Molde II
59%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+
22%
Molde II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals
85%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
57%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
30%
Molde II 1+ goals
84%
Molde II 2+ goals
54%
Molde II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
53%
Molde II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Molde II away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 1.69 + Molde II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.92

Molde II attack 1.70 + Kristiansund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kristiansund II scores more
41%
level
22%
Molde II scores more
37%

Kristiansund II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kristiansund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Kristiansund II 1–0 Molde II

Kristiansund II beat Molde II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Omsundet stadion in Frei.