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Kristiansund II vs Lokomotiv Oslo — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo
J. Wiig 90'
U. Bjerke 79', 63'
E. Storseth 74', 59', 50'
K. Hoftvedt 54'
5/11/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 6Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kristiansund II34%
×Draw22%
Lokomotiv Oslo43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund II
1.61
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.84

Lokomotiv Oslo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kristiansund II
1.69
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.77

allows per match

Kristiansund II
1.92
Lokomotiv Oslo
1.54

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Lokomotiv Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw
57%
Kristiansund II or Lokomotiv Oslo
78%
Draw or Lokomotiv Oslo
66%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+
17%
Lokomotiv Oslo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals
80%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
48%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo 1+ goals
84%
Lokomotiv Oslo 2+ goals
55%
Lokomotiv Oslo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
44%
Lokomotiv Oslo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Lokomotiv Oslo away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 1.69 + Lokomotiv Oslo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lokomotiv Oslo attack 1.77 + Kristiansund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kristiansund II scores more
34%
level
22%
Lokomotiv Oslo scores more
43%

Lokomotiv Oslo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lokomotiv Oslo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
E. Storseth
54'
K. Hoftvedt
59'
E. Storseth
63'
U. Bjerke
74'
E. Storseth
79'
U. Bjerke
90'
J. Wiig

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Kristiansund II 1–6 Lokomotiv Oslo

Lokomotiv Oslo beat Kristiansund II 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: E. Storseth (50', 59', 74'), K. Hoftvedt (54'), U. Bjerke (63', 79'), J. Wiig (90').

The match was played at Nordmøre stadion in Kristiansund.