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Kristiansund II vs Bjørkelangen — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bjørkelangen
Bjørkelangen
W. Norheim Bergquist 19'
8/17/20243. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 17Omsundet stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kristiansund II35%
×Draw23%
Bjørkelangen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund II
1.61
Bjørkelangen
1.80

Bjørkelangen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kristiansund II
1.69
Bjørkelangen
1.69

allows per match

Kristiansund II
1.92
Bjørkelangen
1.54

finishing

Kristiansund II+0.00on par
Bjørkelangen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund II ↓

Bjørkelangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kristiansund II or draw
57%
Kristiansund II or Bjørkelangen
77%
Draw or Bjørkelangen
65%

Winning margin

Kristiansund II wins by 2+
17%
Bjørkelangen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kristiansund II 1+ goals
80%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
48%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
22%
Bjørkelangen 1+ goals
83%
Bjørkelangen 2+ goals
54%
Bjørkelangen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
45%
Bjørkelangen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Bjørkelangen away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund II attack 1.69 + Bjørkelangen defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Bjørkelangen attack 1.69 + Kristiansund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kristiansund II scores more
35%
level
23%
Bjørkelangen scores more
43%

Bjørkelangen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bjørkelangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
W. Norheim Bergquist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Kristiansund II 0–1 Bjørkelangen

Bjørkelangen beat Kristiansund II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on August 17, 2024.

Goals: W. Norheim Bergquist (19').

The match was played at Omsundet stadion in Frei.