Kristiansund BK 1–0 Stabaek: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stabaek

D. Bamba 88' (pen)

5/6/2018

Eliteserien · Round 8Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Kristiansund BK40%

×Draw23%

Stabaek37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.63

Kristiansund BK

1.69

Stabaek

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 7 away

1.24

creates per match

1.63

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.24

Stabaek

1.63

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.63

Stabaek

2.15

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK-0.05on par

Stabaek-0.63scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

63%

Kristiansund BK or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

60%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

20%

Stabaek wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

82%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

50%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

24%

Stabaek 1+ goals

80%

Stabaek 2+ goals

48%

Stabaek 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

52%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 31 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.24 + Stabaek defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.69

Stabaek attack 1.63 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

40%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

37%

Kristiansund BK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Bamba

Kristiansund BK · F

7.6

Match Events

14'

Aliou Coly

30'

M. Ovenstad← T. Brochmann

40'

Andreas Hanche-Olsen

46'

P. Ulvestad← L. Kalludra

65'

O. Omoijuanfo← O. Brynhildsen

74'

S. Sørli← T. Gjertsen

84'

Jeppe Moe

85'

B. Bye← B. Stokke

88'

D. BambaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundStabaek

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots11

5Corners4

9Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target2

6Off Target8

4Blocked1

7Inside Box4

5Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

333Total Passes369

232Accurate Passes263

70%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

6Offsides1