Kristiansund BK 2–2 Skeid: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Skeid

5/29/2023

1. Division · Round 10Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kristiansund BK59%

×Draw22%

Skeid19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchSkeid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.02

Kristiansund BK

1.96

Skeid

1.02

Kristiansund BK creates 92% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

1.93

creates per match

0.97

1.07

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.93

Skeid

0.97

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

1.07

Skeid

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristiansund BK+0.00on par

Skeid+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Skeid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

81%

Kristiansund BK or Skeid

78%

Draw or Skeid

41%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

35%

Skeid wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

86%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

58%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

31%

Skeid 1+ goals

64%

Skeid 2+ goals

27%

Skeid 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

75%

Skeid (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Skeid away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.98 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.93 + Skeid defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.96

Skeid attack 0.97 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

59%

level

22%

Skeid scores more

19%

Kristiansund BK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff