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Kristiansund BK vs Raufoss — 1. Division 2018

Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Raufoss
Raufoss
11/5/20231. Division1. Division · Round 29Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kristiansund BK54%
×Draw22%
Raufoss24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristiansund BK
1.90
Raufoss
1.19

Kristiansund BK creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 113 away

creates per match

Kristiansund BK
1.93
Raufoss
1.31

allows per match

Kristiansund BK
1.07
Raufoss
1.87

finishing

Kristiansund BK+0.00on par
Raufoss+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Raufoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw
76%
Kristiansund BK or Raufoss
78%
Draw or Raufoss
46%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+
31%
Raufoss wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals
85%
Kristiansund BK 2+ goals
56%
Kristiansund BK 3+ goals
29%
Raufoss 1+ goals
70%
Raufoss 2+ goals
33%
Raufoss 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)
69%
Raufoss (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Raufoss away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.87 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.93 + Raufoss defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.90

Raufoss attack 1.31 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more
54%
level
22%
Raufoss scores more
24%

Kristiansund BK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kristiansund BK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Kristiansund BK 1–2 Raufoss

Raufoss beat Kristiansund BK 2-1 in 1. Division on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Nordmøre stadion in Kristiansund.