Kristianstad W 3–1 Trelleborg W: Result & Stats

Kristianstad W

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Trelleborg W

H. Eiríksdóttir 53'

T. Tindell 28', 24'

H. Persson 73'

5/12/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 6Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kristianstad W80%

×Draw13%

Trelleborg W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristianstad WExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.89

0.76

Kristianstad W

2.89

Trelleborg W

0.76

Kristianstad W creates 280% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

2.01

creates per match

0.38

1.14

allows per match

3.77

creates per match

Kristianstad W

2.01

Trelleborg W

0.38

allows per match

Kristianstad W

1.14

Trelleborg W

3.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Trelleborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw

93%

Kristianstad W or Trelleborg W

87%

Draw or Trelleborg W

20%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

60%

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

94%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

78%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

54%

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

53%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

18%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

92%

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 80 matches

Trelleborg W away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.01 + Trelleborg W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.89

Trelleborg W attack 0.38 + Kristianstad W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kristianstad W scores more

80%

level

13%

Trelleborg W scores more

7%

Kristianstad W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Kristianstad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Eiríksdóttir

Kristianstad W · F

9.7

Match Events

24'

28'

35'

46'

53'

57'

59'

61'

H. Persson← T. Persson Welin

61'

L. Prambrant← E. Persson Welin

62'

A. Nilsson← E. Petrović

62'

A. Olsson← C. Wickenheiser

73'

H. Persson

77'

S. Rewucha← R. Strand

80'

C. Polkinghorne← E. Broddheimer

90+2'

E. Olofsson← T. Persson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristianstadTrelleborg

Overview

66%Possession34%

24Total Shots8

3.71Expected Goals (xG)0.37

4Corners0

6Fouls6

Shots

24Total Shots8

5On Target4

11Off Target2

7Blocked2

17Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

614Total Passes306

520Accurate Passes213

85%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3

Damallsvenskan: Kristianstad W 3–1 Trelleborg W

Kristianstad W beat Trelleborg W 3-1 in Damallsvenskan on May 12, 2024.

Goals: T. Tindell (24', 28'), H. Eiríksdóttir (53'), H. Persson (73').

Kristianstad W controlled possession (66%) and registered 24 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kristianstads Fotbollsarena in Kristianstad.

Kristianstad W vs Trelleborg W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Damallsvenskan: Kristianstad W 3–1 Trelleborg W